By MARK JOSLYN
Insight Kansas
It’s not about defeating Sharice Davids. After all, a Democrat occupying one of the four congressional seats is nothing new. It’s not about appeasing Trump. Republicans’ penchant to gerrymander predates his involvement. It’s about Johnson County.
For decades, JoCo outpaced statewide Republican support. For example, when Eisenhower carried Kansas with a whopping 69 percent of the vote, JoCo surpassed that mark with 72.5 percent. When Reagan reached 66 percent, JoCo secured 72.4 percent.
Even in Democrat years, JoCo never wavered. When FDR won the state for a second time, JoCo delivered 57.7 percent of its vote to Republican nominee, and Kansas Governor, Alf Landon. When Kansans chose Democrat Lyndon Johnson, a majority of JoCo voters favored Barry Goldwater. The first signs of change came in 2008.
JoCo’s Republican vote share lagged the statewide average by almost 3 points, the largest such gap since 1917, the last time the county supported a Democrat for president. By 2016 the gap ballooned to 10 points and expanded in 2020 when the county finally flipped blue. Democrat advances appeared down the ballot too.
In 2018, Laura Kelley thumped Kris Kobach in JoCo by 17 points, though statewide it was a 5-point race. In her reelection bid, Kelley realized nearly 60 percent of JoCo’s vote and the county’s state House and Senate Democrat delegations increased.
JoCo’s majority support was pivotal in Sharice Davids’ defeat of incumbent Kevin Yoder for the Third District. Her county vote share has since grown to 55 percent.
For the first time in Kansas history a Democrat Senate candidate won JoCo, though Roger Marshall prevailed statewide. In 2022, Senator Jerry Moran vote share in JoCo dropped to 46.7 percent, down from 62.1 percent a decade before.
And in 2024, Byron Roberson became the first Democrat elected JoCo sheriff in nearly a century. The changes have rattled Republicans who recognize further decline could be costly.
Trump’s call to redraw the maps mid-decade thus comes at an opportune time, giving Republican leaders cover to once again use their redistricting leverage.
By dividing the county, and merging its parts with strong GOP districts, a gerrymander reduces JoCo Democrats to a fragmented minority, their influence diminished by the dilution of their voting power.
A gerrymander also weakens JoCo’s ascendant political structure. No longer able to organize an efficacious majority around shared priorities, JoCo Democrats would have to rebuild a broader, layered infrastructure that spans the diverse interests of suburban and rural communities.
With their base fractured, Democrats may struggle to unify their message, energize supporters, and build strong leadership.
Should Republican leaders pull it off, a gerrymander will, at minimum, blunt Democratic momentum, diminish Davids’ margins, and facilitate GOP actions against a weakened JoCo operation.
But it’s a tightrope, requiring a special session, supermajorities, considerable arm-twisting, and the risks of legal challenges. Whether it’s perceived as an assault on democratic principles or smart political strategy depends on one’s partisan leanings.
State legislatures do have the authority to redraw districts. And both parties appear ready to exercise that power.
JoCo’s outsized influence in the state’s electoral calculus and notable shift toward Democrats makes this a weighty moment for Republican leaders.
Mark R. Joslyn is a professor of political science at the University of Kansas.