By MICHAEL A. SMITH
Insight Kansas
Reviewing the results from the 2025 Kansas Speaks poll conducted by Fort Hays State University, one could easily assume that Kansas is dominated by a coalition of moderate and progressive politics. Consider:
● 70% of Kansans support Medicaid expansion, and about 72% say they think about Medicaid expansion at least a moderate amount.
● 58% support recreational marijuana legalization.
● 59% believe that the state should place no regulations on the circumstances under which women can get abortions.
● While detailed questions about gun policy were not asked this time, in 2024, 75% favored background checks for private gun sales and sales at gun shows, while 55% favored banning assault-style weapons.
● Majorities also favored raising the minimum wage (over 55%) and increasing state assistance for childcare (78%).
Those of us who conduct Kansas Speaks know how hard it is to get a representative sample of respondents these days, so the poll was carefully weighted to reflect the state’s political and demographic makeup. Among our poll respondents who reported voting in 2024, Trump beat Vice President Kamala Harris by more than 10 points. But, why?
Maybe the answer comes down to Trump’s signature issue: immigration. Yet even when we asked specifically about the illegal immigration, we got the following results:
● Only 43% said illegal immigrants are a danger to public safety (21% neutral)
● Only 42% said illegal immigrants should be arrested and put in detention camps (16% neutral)
● Only 39% disagreed that illegal immigrants contribute more to society than they take (16% neutral)
Kansans are divided and ambivalent about illegal immigration. This does not explain support for Trump.
This puzzle brings to mind Thomas Frank’s 2004 book, What’s the Matter with Kansas? Frank suggested that Kansans vote against their true economic interests, instead choosing conservative candidates due to culture war issues like opposition to abortion and to LGBTQ+ rights. However, this is not borne out either by Kansas Speaks or by the state’s 2022 vote on abortion rights, where the pro-choice stance prevailed by an 18% margin.
Likewise, Kansas Speaks offers few clues as to why Kansans would continue to give supermajority support to Trump and his Republican allies. Is it because the Democratic Party is so unpopular these days? Probably not. Most of the Dems’ drop has come from their own supporters, angry at party leaders for not fighting harder against Trump. Also, the Republicans are similarly unpopular.
Is there a “sleeper” issue missing from Kansas Speaks? Quite possibly. A recent Pew Charitable Trust poll of Americans found that the Republicans’ biggest advantage today is on fighting crime, and Kansas Speaks does not feature many questions about that.
Perhaps the simplest explanation lies in just how much Kansans hate our entire political system today. Kansas Speaks respondents’ ratings of all elected officials and institutions were abysmal. The highest rating was only 47% approval for Governor Laura Kelly, the lowest was 21% approval for the U.S. Congress.
Kansans may have simply decided that they have nothing to lose by voting for Trump to send a message. Or, they may have reverted to longstanding party ties, even if these no longer reflect the state’s political realities. No matter the explanation, this year’s poll shows that many of Kansans’ policy views are sharply at odds with the way they vote, raising questions that deserve more attention from scholars, reporters, and citizens alike.
Michael Smith is a professor of political science at Emporia State University.