Aug 04, 2024

INSIGHT: Back to 2020?

Posted Aug 04, 2024 9:15 AM

By MICHAEL A. SMITH
Insight Kansas

“Are you better off than you were four years ago?”

-Ronald Reagan

It is no secret that President Biden is unpopular.  In the 2023 Kansas Speaks poll, a whopping 62.8% of respondents were dissatisfied with Biden’s performance, versus 32.9% who were dissatisfied with fellow Democrat, Governor Laura Kelly.  Widespread approval of Biden’s withdrawal is one of the few issues these days that bring Democrats, Republicans and independents together.   

The focus on Biden’s withdrawal centered on his age and his poor performance in the first Presidential debate–both legitimate concerns.  Yet another issue lurks.  By many measures, Biden’s presidency has been highly successful, characterized by a recovery from the COVID pandemic, a strong economy, falling violent crime rates, decreased poverty, and policies that have advanced the transition to domestically-produced clean energy and begun rebuilding the country’s decrepit infrastructure.  One Biden policy even accomplished something no other President ever has–cutting the child poverty rate in half, to an all-time low.  Congress did not renew the program.

Despite this, many voters perceive the country as doing poorly.  In the first debate, former President Trump suggested that the country is worse off today than in the last year of his Administration.  The year 2020 was so infamous that one TV commercial portrayed it as being in love with the Devil himself.  It was the beginning and second-deadliest year of the COVID pandemic, which ultimately killed over a million Americans and tanked the economy.  The murder of George Floyd triggered protests over police brutality throughout the nation– most were peaceful, but some turned deadly.  Finally, Trump’s term culminated with the events of January 6, 2021.  Yet Trump has no trouble claiming that the country is worse off today–and many Americans seem to agree.  Why?

Except for his own approval ratings, most numbers look very strong for Biden’s legacy.  Violent crime is decreasing, and remains far below the levels of the mid-1960s to mid-1990s. Unemployment dropped dramatically after the pandemic, and remains at low levels.  The stock market is doing well. After a spike in 2021-22 , inflation has been stabilized.  This requires high interest rates, but the Federal Reserve predicts these can start coming down by the end of the year.  

Even issues important to Republicans look good for Biden.  For example, recently, unauthorized crossings at the U.S.-Mexico border have declined steeply, and there haven’t been any violent antifa or Black Lives Matter protests in years.

Despite all the good news, independent voters perceive the country to be in trouble under Biden.   One possible culprit is our long break from high inflation between the early 1980s and 2021.  Older Americans have forgotten–and younger Americans never knew–that controlling inflation means slowing down the increase in prices, not reversing costs to those of previous years.  The latter would require nothing less than deliberately sending the country into economic decline.  Price increases are under control, but costs are not going back to pre-2021 levels. The economic toll of doing so would be far too high.

The nation also continues to struggle with major social challenges, including homelessness, exorbitant housing costs, and fentanyl addiction, all of which we see and feel here in Kansas. They need ongoing, thoughtful attention from policymakers. Blaming them on immigrants is neither accurate nor helpful.

Whatever the causes of today’s public opinion, Biden’s legacy and Vice President Harris’ candidacy both depend in large part on how Americans perceive the current state of the nation.  

Are you better off than you were four years ago?