By MARK R. JOSLYN
Insight Kansas
Just two years ago, Democrats were on the verge of achieving their long-awaited green energy revolution. Biden had reversed Trump’s fossil fuel initiatives and set an ambitious goal for all new vehicles sold by 2030 to be zero-emissions.
He signed the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), a landmark climate package that delivered historic investments for cutting emissions.
Electric vehicles (EV) led the way, an industry turbocharged by IRA’s generous tax credits for vehicle purchases, home chargers, battery manufacturing, and billions for new production facilities. Electric vehicle sales surged in 2023, reaching 14 million globally with 1.4 million sold in the United States, a whopping 67 percent year-over-year increase. They accounted for 10 percent of U.S. light vehicle sales, with Tesla holding over half the EV market share.
Eager to capitalize, Governor Kelly brokered a deal with Panasonic to build a massive $4 billion lithium-ion battery plant in De Soto, aimed at supplying Tesla’s new factories in Texas. A multi-billion dollar tax incentive package secured Panasonic’s investment, made possible by the bipartisan APEX Act passed by the state legislature.
Kelly described the deal as transformative, the largest economic development project in Kansas history, expected to create 4,000 jobs and thousands more through related businesses.
Trump posed little threat. The intense backlash after the Capitol riots and mounting legal challenges cast serious doubt about his future. And despite lingering concerns about his age, Biden was expected to win reelection and help Democrats take back the House.
The anticipated “red wave” never materialized in the midterms, signaling waning strength of the Republican brand. Yet, what felt inevitable crumbled.
Trump returned stronger, calling the shift to EVs a “transition to hell,” framing it effectively as a “government assassination” of auto jobs and unionized workers. Tesla’s CEO Elon Musk joined Trump, which eventually led to a major loss in the company’s market share and a sharp stock sell off.
The enthusiasm for EVs seemed driven as much by political momentum as by consumer demand. When that momentum slowed, so did the market. Overall sales slumped in 2024, dropping to 8 percent of U.S. light vehicles sales. Buyers remained concentrated among the affluent and college educated, with limited penetration into the broader public. Biden’s zero-emissions goal appeared naïve and disconnected from middle-and working-class realities.
Democrats were swept in November. Trump recently signed his Big Beautiful Bill, which terminates EV tax credits and phases out incentives for battery production. Just as Biden had undone Trump’s policies, Trump unraveled Biden’s.
Because federal control routinely alternates between the parties, companies are constantly exposed to shifting regulations and the prospect of brand polarization – ask Disney, Bud Light, now Tesla.
Getting the politics wrong carries serious consequences. Now that circumstances have changed so dramatically, would Kelly still place such a large bet on EVs? Would Panasonic? After all, many clean energy projects have been cancelled including battery plants in Georgia and Arizona.
EVs are excellent cars, the market will grow – just more slowly now. That slower pace has Kansans concerned about the direction this might take, and whether Tesla comes out ahead. Who’d have guessed, the volatile Elon Musk has a starring role in Kansas’s economic future – and Kelly’s legacy.
Dr. Mark R. Joslyn is a professor of political science at the University of Kansas.