By DOUG WILLIAMS
Grow Hays
One of the comments I hear often is “we like our community just the way it is.” I understand that sentiment. We have a wonderful community with much to be thankful for, yet the reality is that staying the way we are is simply not an option.
Ellis County is a regional trade center drawing people from a wide area for shopping, entertainment, education, cultural activities and events, to name a few. Year after year our community ranks in the top three in pull factor among Kansas counties. This is an essential component in making Ellis County a great place to live and giving us the vibrant economy that we have. That being said, there are some realities that we need to consider as we look to the future and our ability to maintain the quality of life we currently have.
From 2010 to 2020 Ellis County population increased from 28,452 in 2010 to 28,934 in 2020, 482 people. This represents a .17 percent per year annual growth rate. Over that same period, our “trade area” experienced a 3.5 percent loss in population-over 3,500 people. Furthermore, the projections for future population trends in our trade area are bleak. Aging populations, automation of farming operations, and difficulty in retaining youth are all contributing to population loss. What this means for Ellis County is a shrinking population of people who shop, attend events, see health care professionals, go to school here, and the list goes on.
Shrinking population is never good for economic conditions in communities and it ultimately leads to business closures, shrinking tax bases, and increasing property taxes. As property values drop there are fewer resources to share in the costs. It also creates an environment where it is very difficult to attract new businesses and people to our community.
While this may sound like doom and gloom, we have been provided with an opportunity through of all things, the pandemic. People are fleeing urban areas in record numbers. Remote workers can work from virtually anywhere and millions are looking to relocate to places without the crowds, the traffic, and the high costs associated with urban life. If our community can resolve the primary challenges we face-those being affordable housing, childcare, antiquated school facilities-and attract a workforce, we can draw in our fair share of this highly desirable demographic.
In a recent interview, Karen Kimbrough, chief economist for LinkedIn, commented that pre-pandemic 1 in 67 of the millions of jobs posted on Linkedin were for remote workers. Today, that number has changed to 1 in 7. That is a stunning statistic! Today, job searchers have more flexibility than ever before as to how and where they work and live. Many are choosing to look for a better way of life in rural areas. We are already seeing this migration taking place in Ellis County. Consider this. Two years ago the local MLS had more than 100 homes available. Early this week, there were 9. Over that same time frame, apartment vacancy rates have hit historic lows and on-campus FHSU enrollment has declined. The only explanation for this combination is that we have had an influx of people and it will continue if we resolve the challenges before us.
The real question is: are we willing to make the investments in housing, schools, and childcare to make sure we take advantage of this unprecedented opportunity. I have great confidence that our community can, and will, do what we must to make sure that we “Grow to stay the same.”
Doug Williams is the executive director of Grow Hays.