Jun 09, 2022

Wheat better than expected, but high input prices to cut into profits

Posted Jun 09, 2022 9:28 PM
Photo courtesy of Pixabay<br>
Photo courtesy of Pixabay

By CRISTINA JANNEY
Hays Post

Drought has significantly affected wheat in southwest Kansas, but the rains may have saved some of the wheat in northwest Kansas.

"Our neighbors in southwest Kansas have been in extreme drought, I think quite a few acres of wheat down there have just been abandoned, destroyed." said Stacy Campbell, Cottonwood District K-State Extension agent for agriculture.

"Fortunately here in our area, we have had a few rains. We're probably in a little better shape than in southwest Kansas. Some of our wheat looks like it is going to do pretty good, all things considered."

The Cottonwood District covers both Hays and Great Bend.

Kansas Drought Monitor map as of May 31<br>
Kansas Drought Monitor map as of May 31

Ellis County is listed on the Kansas Drought Monitor as being in a moderate drought as of May 31. Great Bend has areas listed in both moderate and severe drought. Other sections of northwest Kansas are listed in extreme drought.

Rains are rarely consistent even within counties, so Campbell said soil and crop conditions can vary.

Campbell said farmers won't know wheat yields for sure until harvest. The first harvest in Ellis County usually starts about June 18 t 20. By June 24 harvest in this region should be in full swing, depending on weather, he said.

Campbell said in his weekly column the dry weather has resulted in shorter wheat. Machines may need to be adjusted to most efficiently separate straw from heads, he said.

Nathan Leiker, 36, a farmer with crops in Rush and Ellis counties, said the fluctuating prices and drought should make for an interesting year.

He has concerns the drought may affect his wheat but was a little more optimistic for his fall crops. He said the fall crops look very promising in light of the rain over the last couple of weeks. He is growing corn, milo and wheat.

May rain will help fall crops, but Campbell said more will be needed to help the fall crops, especially dryland corn. He said the soil moisture profile is still not good.

With the drought conditions, Campbell anticipated some farmers will forgo corn for more drought-tolerant crops, such as milo.

Drought and the war in Ukraine have forced wheat prices up. As of May 27, Kansas hard red wheat for July was about $11 per bushel. That is compared to prices as low as $4 per bushel in 2020.

However, Campbell said much of the profit farmers may make due to the increase in the sale price will be eaten up by inflation.

Input prices for fertilizer, herbicides, pesticides and diesel, have all gone up two to two and half times compared to a year ago, he said.

"They do need a better price to still make some money," Campbell said.

Leiker said he thought he may make a profit on wheat this year, but the increases in production costs may wipe out any profit on next year's wheat.

He said the market is changing so fast that some farmers are trying to take advantage of high prices now to lock in sales. If farmers wait until the wheat is out of the fields, they may see prices drop, he said.