Jul 01, 2024

News from the Oil Patch: Crude prices rise 16% in 6 months

Posted Jul 01, 2024 8:51 PM
Photo by Pixabay
Photo by Pixabay

By JOHN P. TRETBAR
Eagle Communications

Crude prices are up nearly ten percent from the first of June, and nearly 16% since the first of January. The near-month NYMEX contract for light sweet crude settled Friday at $81.54 per barrel, ending the month of June nearly seven dollars higher than June 1 and $11 higher than January 1. U.S. crude prices gained another two percent by lunchtime Monday, with NYMEX benchmark rising over $83 per barrel and London Brent topping $86.

The Kansas Geological Society recognized and named three new oil fields and two infield wildcat discoveries at its meeting last month in Wichita. The new fields are located in Gove, Rawlins and Thomas counties.

Operators filed 93 new intent-to-drill notices statewide last month, 506 for the first half of this year.

The Kansas Corporation Commission reports Barton County with four new intents in June, 14 for the year so far, compared to 27 through June last year. Ellis County shows two new intents last month. That's five so far this year, compared to 24 through the first half of 2023. Russell County reports another two in June for a year-to-date total of six intents, which is up two from a year ago. Stafford County reports two intents in June, and eight through June, compared to 19 through June last year.

The Kansas Geological Survey reports statewide output rose from less than 59,000 barrels a day in January to over 78,000 barrels a day in February, as Kansas and much of the country dug out from under a winter storm event that shut down a big part of the patch.

County averages all showed improvement in February, but all lag behind last year's tallies. Ellis County output through February averaged over five thousand barrels per day (bpd). Barton County was over 3,700 bpd. Russell County rises over 3,400 bpd, while Stafford County is over two thousand daily barrels.

Regulators in Kansas last week okayed 24 permits for drilling at new locations, or 474 for the first half of the year, compared to 651 a year ago. There are ten new permits in western Kansas including one in Barton County and one in Ellis County. Independent Oil and Gas Service reports 18 new well-completions for the week, or 643 so far this year. That's down from 874 by the end of June last year. There were just two completions in western Kansas last week, including one in Russell County.

The Kansas Rig Count is unchanged for the week, gaining two rigs in eastern Kansas and losing two west of Wichita. The tally is down seven percent from a month ago, and 32% lower than a year ago.

The weekly Rotary Rig Count from Baker Hughes was down six oil rigs and one gas rig for a total of 581 active rigs. That's the lowest total since December of 2021. Texas was down five rigs. Oklahoma and New Mexico were each down one.

U.S. crude production remained unchanged in the lower 48 states for the second week in a row. Output from Alaska dipped by 4,000 barrels a day.  The Energy Information Administration reports average output nationwide for the week through June 21st of 13,210,000 barrels per day.

Commercial crude stockpiles increased by 3.6 million barrels from a week ago. The Energy Information Administration reports inventories of 460.7 million barrels as of June 21. That's about two percent below the five-year-average for this time of year.

The government has added 1.7 million barrels to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in the last two weeks. They've notched a savings for the federal treasury of $238 million, by selling high and buying low. The Energy Department is refilling the Strategic Petroleum Reserve for about $15 per barrel less than when we sold reserves to combat rising crude prices. Total strategic reserves are up more 24 million barrels from a year ago.

The U.S. is a net crude importer by about 2.7 million barrels per day. Crude imports last week were down from a week earlier, but up from a year ago, at 6.6 million barrels per day. Four-week average imports are up nearly a million barrels a day from last year.  The government report shows nearly four million barrels a day of crude exports, down half a million daily barrels from the week before. The four-week average is up half a million daily barrels from last year.

We're setting records for the amount of natural gas energy producers that don't vent or flare. Despite, or perhaps because of record natural-gas production in the United States, the government says we've reduced the amount of natural gas this is burned at the well head or vented into the air. The Energy Information Administration reports 1.5% of all the natural gas we pulled out of the earth last year was vented or flared, the lowest rate in 18 years.

Natural gas production during last year increased to a record of 125-billion cubic feet per day.  Among history's worst offenders, North Dakota dropped from a venting and flaring rate of nearly 20% five years ago, to just over 5% last year.

Another big player places another big bet on liquefied natural gas. Shell has agreed to buy out the government of Singapore for an undisclosed price to take control of its huge LNG trader Pavilion Energy. Major energy players are banking on a growing role for natural gas, and predict demand will rise by more than 50% in the next 16 years. Shell is already the world's largest player in liquefied natural gas. The company expects the deal to close by early next year.