By TONY GUERRERO
Hays Post
After President-elect Donald Trump's victory over Vice President Kamala Harris, a Fort Hays State University political science professor said there has been a nationwide shift to the right in 2024.
Fort Hays State University wrapped up the election cycle on Thursday by analyzing the 2024 election results.
Presented by FHSU's American Democracy Project, FHSU Assistant Professor of Political Science Jay Steinmetz offered insights and conducted research after Nov. 5.
"There are a lot of important questions that we can ask and critical insights that can be derived from looking at election stats," he said.
Steinmetz attributes the shift to the right to several possible theories, such as the establishment/anti-establishment theory, the economy theory, the Joe Biden theory, the identity theory and the immigration backlash theory.
"Why did we have what we have? Is this a Republican Party success? Is this a Democratic Party failure? It's a little bit of both," he said.
Establishment/anti-establishment theory
Steinmetz said the establishment/anti-establishment theory centers on the difference between establishment politics, which refers to mainstream political structures, traditional party leadership and established institutions.
Steinmetz said anti-establishment sentiment rejects these institutions and is not exclusive to the U.S. Trump has focused on this message since 2016.
"It was a good message for 2016," he said. "But it's almost a perfect fit for 2024 in our post-COVID world. We're angry with the establishment, and Trump's anti-establishment ethos is the perfect fit."
Steinmetz said this message resonated with voters who felt alienated from traditional political structures and frustrated with the current state.
The economy theory
Steinmetz said economic concerns such as inflation, housing costs, consumer confidence and job security played the second-most significant role in the election.
Steinmetz said many people who don't usually vote but do so when critical issues arise tend to view their votes through a transactional lens.
Steinmetz referenced a PBS exit poll that indicated the economy was the primary factor influencing the votes of Black, Hispanic and young voters.
"These are voters who are coming into an economy that's not very good and that dealt with many issues of dislocation," he said.
Steinmetz said Trump successfully framed economic issues in a way that resonated with working-class voters.
He said voters with economic hardship are less concerned with overall policy impacts and more focused on immediate impacts on their daily lives, such as gas prices and the cost of living.
Joe Biden theory
Steinmetz said Biden's leadership may have played a significant role in the Democratic Party's underperformance in 2024.
He suggested the election outcome might have differed if Biden had chosen not to run again after the Democrats' success in the 2022 midterms.
"Had Biden been 'thumped' in the 2022 midterm elections, he very well might have said, 'I'm going to sit out the 2024 election,'" Steinmetz said.
Steinmetz said the Democratic Party did not have difficult discussions about broadening their base and whether Biden should run again due to their 2022 success. Trump announced his candidacy shortly after the midterms.
Steinmetz said this tied Harris to the unpopular Biden administration despite accomplishments like economic acts and infrastructure reforms.
"It brought what I think is one of the more powerful messages from the Republican Party, which is 'If you had four years to fix these problems, why didn't fix them,'" he said.
He added the vice president does not influence policy.
Identity theory
Steinmetz explained identity politics refers to the notion that group identities, rather than individual traits, serve as the primary foundation for political action, policy and change.
He said gender and race played a role in 2024, with Harris facing unique challenges. As a woman, she was held to a different standard than Trump.
"Part of the disadvantage Kamala Harris had in this matchup was the fact that she was a woman, a Black woman and an Asian American Woman. Those factors had a role to play," Steinmetz said.
Steinmetz said Obama ushered in an "age of identity" in 2008, and Trump's anti-identity politics is, in itself, a form of identity politics as it includes positive affirmations of specific identities that support him.
Immigration backlash theory
Steinmetz discusses how border policies and immigration were on voters' minds but were not significant enough to be the principal factor in Trump's victory.
Although border politics and immigration were central to Trump’s movement, there are links to other policy issues.
"The border is connected to our drug crisis, fentanyl, overdose crisis and crime in this country. It's connected to national security imperatives, a whole bunch of other policy avenues," Steinmetz said.
Steinmetz said this is important for progressives and independents to reflect on, as it highlights the importance of border-related issues for Trump supporters.
Harris campaign
Steinmetz said while it's subjective, one could argue Harris ran a campaign of integrity with few errors, though there were some missteps.
Steinmetz points to Harris's limited media presence and lack of policy substance, which may have impacted her appeal to specific voter groups.
"On the whole, I would say it was a pretty normal campaign, and I don't see a lot of huge missteps or huge errors," he said. "In fact, probably one of the biggest errors was Joe Biden opening his mouth and calling Trump supporters garbage."
According to data from Steinmetz, there was a 3.1% shift toward Trump in swing states compared to 2020, while outside swing states, the shift was 6.7% in his favor.
Steinmetz said the time and money spent in swing states helped mitigate what would have been a more significant loss to Trump if Harris had not run a strong campaign.
Trump 2025
Based on Steinmetz's analysis, Trump's return to the White House is a pivotal moment for the Republican Party and the country. However, the rightward shift in the electorate in 2024 may not be permanent.
"They could be [permanent], but I think it's going to depend on how Republicans govern," he said.
Steinmetz said young voters are low-propensity voters, and Black voters are traditionally Democratic, meaning the recent shift could swing back in the other direction.
He said Hispanic voters in Florida and Democratic strongholds in Texas shifted more toward the Republican Party due to concerns about immigration and economic issues.
Steinmetz specializes in political theory, American politics and public law. His research focuses on liberal theory in American political culture, presidential memory in popular culture and the legal evolution of free speech in the 20th century.
