NEW YORK (AP) — U.S. stocks tumbled to one of their worst days of the year after the Federal Reserve hinted Wednesday it may deliver fewer shots of adrenaline for the U.S. economy in 2025 than earlier thought.
The S&P 500 fell 2.9%, just shy of its biggest loss for the year from the summer, to pull further from its all-time high set a couple weeks ago. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1,123 points, or 2.6%, and the Nasdaq composite dropped 3.6%.
The Fed said Wednesday it’s cutting its main interest rate for a third time this year, continuing the sharp turnaround begun in September when it started lowering rates from a two-decade high to support the job market. That cut, though, was widely expected.
The bigger question centers on how much more the Fed will cut next year. A lot is riding on it, particularly after expectations for a series of cuts in 2025 helped the U.S. stock market set an all-time high at least 57 times in 2024.
Fed officials released projections on Wednesday showing the median expectation among them is for two more cuts to the federal funds rate in 2025, or half a percentage point’s worth. That’s down from the four cuts expected just three months ago.
“We are in a new phase of the process,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said after the central bank quickly eased its main interest rate since September by a full percentage point to a range of 4.25% to 4.50%.
Asked why Fed officials are looking to slow their cuts, Powell pointed to how the job market looks to be performing well overall and how recent inflation readings have picked up. He also cited uncertainties that will require policy makers to react to upcoming, to-be-determined changes in the economy.
While lower rates can offer a boost to the economy by making it cheaper to borrow and boosting prices for investments, they can also offer more fuel for inflation.
Powell said some Fed officials, but not all, are also already trying to incorporate uncertainties inherent in a new administration coming into the White House. Worries are rising on Wall Street that President-elect Donald Trump’s preference for tariffs and other policies could further juice inflation, along with economic growth.
“When the path is uncertain, you go a little slower,” Powell said. It’s “not unlike driving on a foggy night or walking into a dark room full of furniture. You just slow down.”
One official, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, thought the central bank should not have even cut rates this time around. She was the lone vote against Wednesday’s rate cut.
The reduced expectations for 2025 rate cuts sent Treasury yields rising in the bond market, squeezing the stock market.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.50% from 4.40% late Tuesday, which is a notable move for the bond market. The two-year yield, which more closely tracks expectations for Fed action, climbed to 4.35% from 4.25%.
On Wall Street, stocks of companies that can feel the most pressure from higher interest rates fell to some of the worst losses.
Stocks of smaller companies did poorly, for example. Many need to borrow to fuel their growth, meaning they can feel more pain when having to pay higher interest rates for loans. The Russell 2000 index of small-cap stocks tumbled 4.4%.
Elsewhere on Wall Street, General Mills dropped 3.1% despite reporting a stronger profit for the latest quarter than expected. The maker of Progresso soups and Cheerios said it will increase its investments in brands to help them grow, which pushed it to cut its forecast for profit this fiscal year.
Nvidia, the superstar responsible for a chunk of Wall Street’s rally to records in recent years, fell 1.1% to extend its weekslong funk. It has dropped more than 13% from its record set last month and fallen in nine of the last 10 days as its big momentum slows.
On the winning end of Wall Street, Jabil jumped 7.3% to help lead the market after reporting stronger profit and revenue for the latest quarter than analysts expected. The electronics company also raised its forecast for revenue for its full fiscal year.
All told, the S&P 500 fell 178.45 points to 5,872.16. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1,123.03 to 42,326.87, and the Nasdaq composite skidded 716.37 to 19,392.69.
In stock markets abroad, London’s FTSE 100 edged up by less than 0.1% after data showed inflation accelerated to 2.6% in November, its highest level in eight months. The Bank of England is also meeting on interest rates this week and will announce its decision on Thursday.
In Japan, where the Bank of Japan will wrap up its own policy meeting on Friday, the Nikkei 225 slipped 0.7%. That was despite a 23.7% jump for Nissan Motor Corp., which said it was in talks on closer collaboration with Honda Motor Co., though no decision had been made on a possible merger. Honda Motor’s stock lost 3%.
Nissan, Honda and Nissan alliance member Mitsubishi Motors Corp. agreed in August to share components for electric vehicles like batteries and to jointly research software for autonomous driving to adapt better to dramatic changes in the auto industry.
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WASHINGTON (AP) — The Federal Reserve cut its key interest rate Wednesday by a quarter-point — its third cut this year — but also signaled that it expects to reduce rates more slowly next year than it previously envisioned, largely because of still-elevated inflation.
The Fed’s 19 policymakers projected that they will cut their benchmark rate by a quarter-point just twice in 2025, down from their estimate in September of four rate cuts. Their new projections suggest that consumers may not enjoy much lower rates next year for mortgages, auto loans, credit cards and other forms of borrowing.
Fed officials have underscored that they are slowing their rate reductions as their benchmark rate nears a level that policymakers refer to as “neutral” — the level that is thought to neither spur nor hinder the economy. Wednesday's projections suggest that the policymakers may think they are not very far from that level. Their benchmark rate stands at 4.3% after Wednesday’s move, which followed a steep half-point reduction in September and a quarter-point cut last month.
“I think that a slower pace of (rate) cuts really reflects both the higher inflation readings we’ve had this year and the expectations that inflation will be higher" in 2025, Chair Jerome Powell said at a news conference. "We’re closer to the neutral rate, which is another reason to be cautious about further moves.”
“Nonetheless,” Powell said, "we see ourselves as still on track to cut.”
This year’s Fed rate reductions have marked a reversal after more than two years of high rates, which largely helped tame inflation but also made borrowing painfully expensive for American consumers.
But now, the Fed is facing a variety of challenges as it seeks to complete a “soft landing” for the economy, whereby high rates manage to curb inflation without causing a recession. Chief among them is that inflation remains sticky: According to the Fed’s preferred gauge, annual “core” inflation, which excludes the most volatile categories, was 2.8% in October. That is still persistently above the central bank’s 2% target.
At the same time, the economy is growing briskly, which suggests that higher rates haven’t much restrained the economy. As a result, some economists — and some Fed officials — have argued that borrowing rates shouldn’t be reduced much more for fear of overheating the economy and re-igniting inflation. On the other hand, the pace of hiring has cooled significantly since 2024 began, a potential worry because one of the Fed’s mandates is to achieve maximum employment.
“We don’t think we need further cooling in the labor market to get inflation below 2%,” Powell said at his news conference.
The unemployment rate, while still low at 4.2%, has risen nearly a full percentage point in the past two years. Concern over rising unemployment contributed to the Fed’s decision in September to cut its key rate by a larger-than-usual half point.
On top of that, President-elect Donald Trump has proposed a range of tax cuts — on Social Security benefits, tipped income and overtime income — as well as a scaling-back of regulations. Collectively, these moves could stimulate growth. At the same time, Trump has threatened to impose a variety of tariffs and to seek mass deportations of migrants, which could accelerate inflation.
Powell and other Fed officials have said they won’t be able to assess how Trump’s policies might affect the economy or their own rate decisions until more details are made available and it becomes clearer how likely it is that the president-elect’s proposals will actually be enacted. Until then, the outcome of the presidential election has mostly heightened the uncertainty surrounding the economy.
“I’ve got the least amount of conviction about what will happen with the economy over the next 12 months than I’ve had in years,” said Subadra Rajappa, head of U.S. rates strategy at Societe Generale. “This is going to be a work in progress as things evolve.”
Such uncertainty was underscored by the quarterly economic projections the Fed issued Wednesday. The policymakers now expect overall inflation, as measured by their preferred gauge, to rise slightly from 2.3% now to 2.5% by the end of 2025. Inflation by their measure is now far below its peak of 7.2% in June 2022. Even so, the prospect of slightly higher inflation makes it harder for the Fed to reduce borrowing costs because high interest rates are its principal weapon against inflation.
The officials also expect the unemployment rate to inch up by the end of next year, from 4.2% now to a still-low 4.3%. That slight increase might not be enough, by itself, to justify many more rate cuts.
Most other central banks around the world are also cutting their benchmark rates. Last week, the European Central Bank lowered its key rate for the fourth time this year to 3% from 3.25%, as inflation in the 20 countries that use the euro has fallen to 2.3% from a peak of 10.6% in late 2022. The Bank of Canada also cut its rate by a quarter-point last week, as did the Bank of England last month.
Beth Hammack, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, dissented from Wednesday’s Fed decision because she preferred to keep rates unchanged. It was the first dissent by a Fed committee member since September.