By COLE REIF
Great Bend Post
GREAT BEND — In a strategic planning report presented to the Barton Community College Board of Trustees Tuesday, the college’s Director of Institutional Research Todd Mobray explained the population cliff in the United States and the challenges of decreasing enrollment.
In 2020, the U.S. Census Bureau reported
the country had the lowest annual population growth in U.S. history at .12%, or
roughly three million. Kansas is one of 13 states that has had a population
decline in two of the last three years.
With fewer and fewer “Kansas kids,” Mobray said the United States is projected
to grow by nearly 14 percent, largely through immigration, by 2050.
"In a study by the United Nations in 2019, there were 158 million people
in Europe that said if they were able to, they would move to the United
States," said Mobray. "There's a lower birth rate now in the United
States, but we have options. It might be good to look at international
students in the future."
The U.S. birth data for 2020 showed that births have been falling for more than
a decade. The enrollment number at Barton has dropped 29% from 16,049 in 2016 to 11,402 in 2021.
"If people think growing and growing is the answer, which some people
don't," said Mobray. "Some people are happy with zero population growth
because there are benefits. If there is growth, it will come from
international citizens because it's not going to come from birth rates."
In
2019, the United Nations projected that populations of 55 countries or
areas will decrease by one percent or more between 2020 and 2050.
However, the population of the United States, currently at 333 million,
is expected to grow to 379 million by 2050.
Barton saw a large drop in their male enrollment over the years. In 2016, there
were 10,028 males enrolled across Barton. That number dropped more than 44% in
2021 with 5,571 males enrolled. During that same timeframe, there was a 3.3% decrease in female enrollees.