<figure>
 <img src="https://media.eaglewebservices.com/public/2020/3/1585421658372.png" alt="Celia Llopis-Jepsen / Kansas News Service " />
 <figcaption>Celia Llopis-Jepsen / Kansas News Service </figcaption>
 </figure>By CELIA LLOPIS-JEPSEN <a href="https://www.kcur.org/post/even-40-kansans-getting-covid-19-six-months-would-overwhelm-states-hospitals#stream/0">Kansas News Service</a>Dr. Joe Meier’s hospital in Wilson County has 15 beds, no intensive 
care unit and one ventilator. Two of his neighboring counties in 
southeast Kansas have no hospital at all, and another two have no ICU 
either.So Meier has a plea to the residents of his region: Stay home."It's not a matter of 'if' (COVID-19) is going to hit here,' he said. "It’s a matter of when."Harvard University researchers looked at&nbsp;<a href="https://globalepidemics.org/2020/03/17/caring-for-covid-19-patients/" target="_blank">nine scenarios</a>&nbsp;for
 how many Americans could catch COVID-19, and how fast. Kansas, it 
turned out, could only handle the milder scenarios. More moderate or 
severe situations would overload the state’s hospitals without dramatic 
steps — such as clearing hospitals of other patients and convincing the 
public to shelter in place.As of Thursday afternoon, Kansas had 
about 200 confirmed cases of COVID-19, though the true number of people 
carrying the bug is unknown. State officials have said at times that 
they expect to see cases double every three or four days.Staff at Wilson Medical Center are preparing to run an ad hoc ICU and 
convert spaces used for other purposes into coronavirus wards. The 
hospital is ordering more&nbsp;<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/27/how-ventilators-work-and-why-they-are-so-important-in-saving-people-with-coronavirus" target="_blank">ventilators</a>, which are needed to help severely ill COVID-19 patients breathe, but those could take a month or more to arrive.<figure>
 <img src="https://media.eaglewebservices.com/public/2020/3/1585421697296.jpeg" alt=" Hospitals have tapered off non-emergency care to free up beds. That could help Kansas weather a storm of COVID-19 infections, but experts say only if Kansans also practice social distancing. Credit Celia Llopis-Jepsen / Kansas News Service" />
 <figcaption> Hospitals have tapered off non-emergency care to free up beds. That could help Kansas weather a storm of COVID-19 infections, but experts say only if Kansans also practice social distancing. Credit Celia Llopis-Jepsen / Kansas News Service</figcaption>
 </figure>“If Wichita becomes full and Topeka becomes full and Kansas City is 
full,” Meier said, “we're going to have to take care of them whether we 
have ICU beds or not.”While most cases of the new coronavirus are mild, about <a href="https://www.propublica.org/article/methodology-how-propublica-mapped-hospital-capacity-for-coronavirus" target="_blank">one in five</a>
 people become sick enough for hospitalization. If too many need that 
level of care at once, Kansas would need field hospitals. Facilities 
could have to ration ventilators and other equipment, as has <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/03/15/coronavirus-rationing-us/" target="_blank">happened elsewhere</a>.“Everybody
 has a role to play in terms of slowing the spread,” said Thomas Tsai, a
 professor at the Harvard Global Health Institute, which produced the 
study.But the country’s window of opportunity is closing, he 
added. Strict social distancing is needed to avoid the worst-case 
scenarios and buy time for hospitals that are waiting on equipment and 
protective gear, and training staff on handling COVID-19 patients.There’s
 a big difference, for example, between 20% of the U.S. catching 
COVID-19 over the next 18 months versus 40% in a year or 60% in half a 
year.Harvard’s scenarios took into account likely hospitalization rates and how full hospitals already were.Health
 care facilities in the Kansas City metro and surrounding areas that 
depend on it — what’s known as a hospital referral region — could handle
 only the mildest of Harvard’s scenarios.That’s a situation in 
which the disease hits 20% of the 2.6 million people over the next 
year-and-a-half. Anything beyond that, and the region’s hospitals would 
overflow.The vast Wichita referral region (population 1.3 
million, including west and southeast Kansas) could handle up to a 40% 
infection rate over a year-and-a-half. The Topeka referral region 
(population 460,000) could handle a 20% infection rate over a year or 
year-and-a-half.Kansas didn’t appear ready, according to the researchers’ findings, 
for higher infection rates and swifter spread. Even if hospitals had no 
other patients, there wouldn’t be enough beds in the state for a 40% 
infection rate over six months.Hospitals have tapered down or shuttered <a href="https://www.kcur.org/post/most-kansas-city-area-hospitals-put-elective-surgeries-prepare-covid-19" target="_blank">non-emergency care</a>
 to make space and the state’s main population centers are under 
stay-home orders. Kansas health secretary Lee Norman urges the rest of 
the state to shelter in place, too.<figure>
 <img src="https://media.eaglewebservices.com/public/2020/3/1585421732792.jpeg" alt=" Health secretary Lee Norman talks to reporters about COVID-19. (Press briefings are now less crowded and follow social distancing rules.) Credit Jim McLean / Kansas News Service" />
 <figcaption> Health secretary Lee Norman talks to reporters about COVID-19. (Press briefings are now less crowded and follow social distancing rules.) Credit Jim McLean / Kansas News Service</figcaption>
 </figure>Kansas has asked the federal government for 100 more ventilators from
 a national stockpile, Norman said Wednesday, and may turn to <a href="https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/letters-health-care-providers/ventilator-supply-mitigation-strategies-letter-health-care-providers" target="_blank">machines meant for sleep apnea</a>
 to help COVID-19 patients breathe. To address a looming shortage of 
face masks, it’s trying to get ultraviolet lights that would let health 
workers sterilize and reuse the items several times.The state is also scouring options for <a href="https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/blogs/stateline/2020/03/23/coronavirus-and-the-states-governors-plan-field-hospitals-heartland-unemployment-spikes" target="_blank">temporary bed space</a>; in other parts of the U.S., officials are turning to everything from <a href="https://mynorthwest.com/1775827/king-county-field-hospitals-coronavirus/" target="_blank">soccer fields</a> to <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/states-closed-hospitals-college-dorms-meet-coronavirus-demands/story?id=69683447" target="_blank">closed hospitals</a>.Norman
 expected to know more soon about the state’s risks for running out of 
bed space and its options to repurpose existing buildings if needed.“As
 much as it seems like ‘Oh, well, we’ll call in the National Guard and 
set up tents,” he said, “that's hard. We would much rather move into a 
built environment that was built for patient care, that has (ventilator)
 gases and all the safety features.”In Topeka, Stormont Vail 
Health swiftly renovated 16 rooms, adding to 31 that were already 
equipped with the right air systems to handle COVID-19 patients. It may 
renovate another 16 rooms, CEO and physician Robert Kenagy said.His
 hospital is also turning one of its clinics into an acute respiratory 
location to screen and care for suspected COVID-19 patients more 
efficiently and safely.“We believe that we will be able to 
handle what's coming,” Kenagy said, if Kansans take social distancing 
seriously. “It is vitally important. This is our one opportunity to 
dampen the effect of the pandemic.”Celia Llopis-Jepsen reports on consumer health and education for the Kansas News Service. You can follow her on Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/Celia_LJ" target="_blank">@celia_LJ</a> or email her at celia@kcur.org.

Even 40% of Kansans getting COVID-19 in 6 months would overwhelm hospitals